How the National Bitcoin Reserve Will Help the US with the National Debt: VanEck Analysts Forecast

Earlier, Trump directly stated the possibility of using coins to pay off the US national debt. The scheme involved buying bitcoins for the long term, storing them for many years until the price significantly increased, and then selling them.

For example, here is a video from early August 2024, in which Donald Trump talked about the prospect of paying off the then $35 trillion national debt using BTC.

It is too early to discuss the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, because the newly elected politician has not yet taken office – this will happen on January 20, 2025. However, there is still progress in this regard.

The day before, we analyzed the situation with fresh bills in three states: Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. There, members of the House of Representatives are seriously worried about the gradual depreciation of the dollar and propose hedging risks with the help of the most popular cryptocurrency in the world.

According to experts, this base may subsequently become the basis for the accumulation of coins on the scale of an entire state. And the coins themselves are quite capable of improving what is happening with the US national debt.

Why does the US need Bitcoin?

According to analysts at the largest investment fund VanEck, the Bitcoin reserve will be able to reduce the US national debt by 35 percent by 2049. This will be relevant if the government buys a million BTC, and the cryptocurrency rises in price to $42.3 million per coin by this date, which is in line with the company’s expectations.


Today Bitcoin fell to $93,000. Why should the cryptocurrency suddenly rise to millions after decades?


According to analysts, the key to the unprecedented growth of BTC will be the demand for coins from large companies and countries. As previously noted by representatives of the Bitwise fund, they expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 next year, but if national cryptocurrency reserves are formed in the US and other countries, they will increase their expectations to $500,000 or more.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor shared a similar story this summer. He expects BTC to reach $3 million by 2045 — and this is the worst of the three scenarios presented.

VanEck analysts estimate that Bitcoin will increase in value at an annual growth rate of 25 percent, while the corresponding figure for government debt will be 5 percent per annum. Where will this end?

According to experts, Bitcoin will rise in price to $42.3 million by 2049, while the national debt will jump from the current $36.2 trillion to $119.3 trillion over the same period of time.

Here’s commentary from VanEck’s head of digital asset research Matthew Siegel and investment analyst Nathan Frankowitz.

Bitcoin reserves could account for approximately 35 percent of the national debt by 2049, thus offsetting liabilities of about $42 trillion.

It is important to note that the optimistic scenario of analysts starts with Bitcoin at $200 thousand per coin in 2025. Accordingly, the cryptocurrency needs to increase in price more than twice to reach the starting point.

BTC’s growth to the indicated $42.3 million mark means that the cryptocurrency will account for about 18 percent of the capitalization of all financial assets, Cointelegraph reports .

That’s a significant jump from the current 0.22 percent of the $900 trillion market cap.

As proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis’s coin purchase bill, the U.S. could use 198,100 BTC that were previously confiscated by the government and are currently held in government wallets. The remaining 801,900 BTC could be purchased through so-called Emergency Support Features or the sale of $455 billion in gold reserves, or a combination of the two.

In any case, the authorities will not have to print dollars or use taxpayers’ money to buy coins, VanEck analysts note.

Meanwhile, global giants continue to buy cryptocurrency. A Japanese investment firm reported buying 619.7 BTC for $60 million.

This is the largest crypto purchase by the giant, bringing its total holdings to 1761.98 BTC. The average purchase price for each coin is $75.6 thousand.


The US is not working on creating a national Bitcoin reserve yet, as it would take a long time. However, analysts at major investment funds are already working on forming a narrative according to which BTC and other popular cryptocurrencies are capable of generating huge returns in the long term. And when states and large companies buy coins, this forecast will indeed become a reality.


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