In mid-December 2024, former head of the BitMEX exchange Arthur Hayes published an unpleasant forecast for the cryptocurrency industry. At that time, he said that the imminent inauguration of Donald Trump would lead to a collapse in coin rates, because traders allegedly realized the impossibility of rapid changes in the regulatory system of the sphere. However, Hayes has now changed his point of view and believes that the market collapse he promised is happening right now.
What Will Happen to Bitcoin After Trump’s Victory
Arthur Hayes predicts that the cryptocurrency market will peak during the current bull run in the second half of March, i.e. within the next 2.5 months . Then the industry will enter a serious correction, which could trigger the so-called bear trend.
Hayes’ new essay , “Sasa,” begins by explaining that heavy snowfall in Hokkaido has forced the ski resorts to open early. But skiers there should be wary of sasa, the Japanese word for a type of bamboo. It has thin stems and very sharp leaves that can easily cut skiers’ skin, making the slopes extremely dangerous until enough snow falls.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes
In this way, he compared the situation with what is happening on the coin market, the current correction of which occurred earlier than the trader expected. According to Hayes, the market collapse he predicted after Trump’s inauguration began in mid-December and is still ongoing.
So what should happen next according to the updated forecast? Arthur expects positive sentiment among crypto investors after Trump comes to power, as we could see a sharp increase in dollar liquidity in the first three months of 2025. This will offset the disappointment of realizing that the new president will not be able to change the digital asset regulatory environment and create a national Bitcoin reserve overnight.
Here’s a retort on this subject from Decrypt .
The disappointment caused by the Trump team’s failed promises regarding legislation to support cryptocurrencies and businesses may be offset by the extremely favorable situation with dollar liquidity, which could grow to $612 billion in the first quarter.
At the same time, the weakening of the dollar is traditionally good news for cryptocurrencies, because in such conditions, investors are looking for alternative assets for subsequent exit from the world’s main fiat currency.
Cryptocurrency Market Growth
Hayes’ version suggests that the second half of March 2025 will be a great time to sell digital assets and “relax on the beach.”
It is worth noting that Arthur's forecast does not have to come true. Firstly, he previously admitted that the accuracy of his predictions was approximately 25 percent for 2024 - and this is quite low. Secondly, even the new essay emphasizes how dramatically Hayes can change his attitude to what is happening in the market in just three weeks. So it is possible that in a month the trader will change this forecast too.
In any case, Hayes noted that now, as the manager of the Maelstrom investment fund, he will reward employees who crank up their risk tolerance to the level of “degeneracy,” that is, to the maximum. Thus, the expert confirmed expectations of a massive rise in the markets in the coming weeks.
Arthur also mentioned his essay from mid-December, in which he predicted a collapse of the coin industry around the time of Trump’s inauguration. The trader admitted that he can be a “lousy predictor of the future,” but he takes new information into account and changes his mind before the opportunity to exploit new opportunities is missed.
Three Bitcoin Growth Scenarios in 2045, According to MicroStrategy Co-Founder Michael Saylor
Here is his comment on this matter.
Imagine hitting every hole-in-one in golf, making every three-pointer in basketball, or sinking every ball in one shot in pool. Life would be unbearably boring.
Bitcoin Prediction 2025
Many analysts agree that the new year will be positive for the crypto market, whose bull run will reach its peak. For example, Bernstein analysts yesterday published 10 forecasts for digital assets in 2025 and confirmed that they expect Bitcoin to grow to $200,000.
Experts from the large investment fund Bitwise, who shared their expectations for the new year back in the first half of December, are counting on the same mark.
Cryptocurrency Investors During the Bull Run
At the same time, analysts separately noted that the prospect of creating a national Bitcoin reserve by the US government will force them to revise the corresponding forecast. In particular, in this case, one can expect the growth of the first cryptocurrency to a peak of 500 thousand dollars.
Arthur Hayes’ version is just one of the possible scenarios for the development of the crypto industry this year. It should be noted that many analysts are betting on the end of the bull run closer to the end of 2025, similar to previous stages of growth. However, we will have to see the maximums of coins in practice.
